Federal Finance Minister Bill Morneau. Image credit: The Canadian Press

Federal Finance Minister Bill Morneau. Image credit: The Canadian Press

CPP reform to help boost plan’s assets above $15 trillion by 2090: analysis

Federal calculations follow deal last year to increase Canadians’ retirement benefits

OTTAWA — The upcoming enrichment of the Canada Pension Plan will help fuel a 48-fold boost to the public fund’s assets over the long haul — to more than $15.8 trillion by 2090, according to federal calculations.

In comparison, the public plan’s investment manager reported $326.5 billion in net assets at the end of the first quarter of 2017-18.

Long-term projections on the evolution of the CPP’s post-reform assets were included in an internal briefing note prepared for federal Finance Minister Bill Morneau earlier this year. The memo referred to numbers published last October by the Office of the Chief Actuary.

The figures accounted for the impact of a CPP deal reached last year between the federal government and the provinces. They agreed to changes that will increase Canadians’ retirement benefits through the public plan by raising contributions as of 2019.

READ MORE: Business pushing back on CPP expansion

READ MORE: B.C. MP says we can’t afford CPP increase

CPP reform was a key goal for Ottawa and provinces like Ontario as a way to provide more financial security for future generations of retirees.

But it has also faced significant criticism. For example, advocates for small businesses have warned it will be devastating for employers and drive up costs in what they have described as a “payroll tax.”

The increase also means the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, which manages the CPP contributions, will be responsible for far more money over the coming decades.

Without the enhancement, the total CPP assets would have totalled $6.7 trillion in 2090, the projections said.

“Additional CPP assets are projected to grow rapidly in the early years as a result of the high level of contributions compared to benefits paid, reaching $70 billion by 2025 and almost $1 trillion by 2045,” said the January briefing memo prepared for Morneau ahead of a scheduled meeting with CPPIB president and CEO Mark Machin.

The projections predicted the assets in the enhanced CPP portion to surpass those collected under base CPP program by 2055.

Machin has acknowledged CPPIB will have to adjust to its additional obligation of managing a much-larger envelope. The organization invests CPP assets not currently needed to pay pension, disability and survivor benefits.

“With or without reform, the CPP fund is projected to grow significantly in the future, and we’re well-prepared to manage a larger fund,” Machin told MPs during his appearance at a parliamentary committee last November.

“When we evaluate investment programs, new processes, and supporting technology, we always want to ensure that they can be scaled to take into account increased size. We are very confident that we’ll be ready to manage the additional funds.”

Machin has also stressed the importance of the arms-length CPPIB’s independence from government influence when it comes to its decisions around investments. He’s called that separation from potential political pressure one of the secrets to its success.

The briefing note to Morneau outlined several expected areas of focus for his meeting with Machin, including discussion about the Liberal government’s proposed infrastructure bank.

The government’s $35-billion infrastructure bank will seek to use public funds as leverage to attract billions more in private investment for major projects, such as new bridges, transit systems and rail lines. Ottawa has said it hopes the Canada Infrastructure Bank will entice institutional investors, such as pension plans, to participate.

The partially redacted memo to Morneau noted that Machin has emphasized the importance of CPPIB’s independence when it comes to infrastructure investments.

The document’s suggested speaking notes also featured an overview of the government’s infrastructure bank and a reference to CPPIB’s investment record when it came to infrastructure.

The document, obtained by The Canadian Press under the Access to Information Act, said CPPIB’s infrastructure assets accounted for 7.6 per cent of its global portfolio at the time and that it held only one infrastructure asset in Canada: a stake in the Toronto region’s 407 Express Toll Route.

The memo also noted the CPPIB has looked outside Canada due to a lack of investment opportunities big enough — Machin has said it seeks projects larger than $500 million — and its reluctance to invest in brand-new projects that often carry more risk.

When it comes to the projected size of the CPP’s assets in 2090, Jack Mintz, a tax-policy expert from the University of Calgary, said expected population increases and inflation should be taken into consideration.

He added that CPP reform will lift retirement benefits, but it will still be quite small when compared to Canadians’ total savings.

“It’s an increase, but it’s not an overwhelming increase — it’s kind of advertised as a bigger change than it really was.”

Andy Blatchford, The Canadian Press

Just Posted

Manluk Centre/ Impress
Manluk Centre re-opens to the public

Drop in and registered programs will be available; one-third facility capacity to be followed.

File photo
Leduc RCMP request assistance to identify armed robbery suspect

Leduc RCMP are looking for male responsible for an armed robbery at Super Car and RV Wash in Leduc.

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney arrives at the 2021 budget in Edmonton on Thursday, Feb. 25, 2021.THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson
Alberta launches COVID vaccine lottery with million-dollar prizes to encourage uptake

The premier says the lottery will offer three prizes worth $1 million a piece, as well as other prizes

The City of Red Deer sits at 249 active cases of the virus, after hitting a peak of 565 active cases on Feb. 22. (Black Press file image)
Red Deer down to 119 active COVID-19 cases

Province identifies 179 new cases Saturday

Member Terry Parsons’ custom built track vehicle.
Forestburg’s Area 53 Racetrack gears up for action-packed season

Site will also host a portion of the ‘Miles of Mayhem’ event in July

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau participates in a plenary session at the G7 Summit in Carbis Bay, England on Friday June 11, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
Canada donating 13M surplus COVID-19 vaccine doses to poor countries

Trudeau says the government will pay for 87 million shots to be distributed to poor countries

The Kamloops Indian Residential School is photographed using a drone in Kamloops, B.C., Monday, June, 14, 2021. The remains of 215 children were discovered buried near the former school earlier this month. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward
Communities grapple with what to do with former residential and day schools

Some tear them down as a tool to help healing, others repurpose them as tools for moving forward

RCMP Const. Shelby Patton is shown in this undated handout photo. RCMP say that Patton was hit by an allegedly stolen truck that he had pulled over on Saturday morning in Wolseley, east of Regina. THE CANADIAN PRESS/HO, RCMP
Pair charged in Saskatchewan Mountie’s death make first court appearance

Const. Shelby Patton was hit by an allegedly stolen truck that he had pulled over Saturday morning

David and Collet Stephan leave for a break during an appeal hearing in Calgary on Thursday, March 9, 2017. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Todd Korol
Appeal Court rejects stay for Alberta couple facing third trial in son’s death

Pair accused in their earlier trials of not seeking medical attention for their son sooner

Calgary Stampeders’ Jerome Messam leaps over a tackle during second half CFL western semifinal football action in Calgary, Sunday, Nov. 15, 2015.THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh
CFL football will be played this summer in Canada

Governors vote unanimously in favour to start the ‘21 campaign on Aug. 5

Citizenship Minister Marco Mendicino holds a press conference in Ottawa on Thursday, Nov. 12, 2020. The federal government is announcing that Indigenous people can now apply to reclaim their names on passports and other government documents. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick
Indigenous people can now reclaim traditional names on their passports and other ID

Announcement applies to all individuals of First Nations, Inuit and Métis background

This undated photo provided by Girl Scouts of New Mexico Trails shows a scout donating cookies to firefighters in Rio Rancho, New Mexico, as part of the Hometown Heroes program. As the coronavirus pandemic wore into the spring selling season, many Girl Scout troops nixed their traditional cookie booths for safety reasons. That resulted in millions of boxes of unsold cookies. (Girl Scouts of New Mexico Trails via AP)
Thinner Mints: Girl Scouts have millions of unsold cookies

Since majority of cookies are sold in-person, pandemic made the shortfall expected

In this artist’s sketch, Nathaniel Veltman makes a video court appearance in London, Ont., on June 10, 2021 as Justice of the Peace Robert Seneshen (top left) and lawyer Alayna Jay look on. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Alexandra Newbould
Terror charges laid against London attack suspect

Crown says Nathaniel Veltman’s four counts of first-degree murder constitute an act of terrorism

Indigenous Services Minister Marc Miller is seen during a news conference, Wednesday May 19, 2021 in Ottawa. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
Indigenous child-welfare battle heads to court despite calls for Ottawa to drop cases

Feds are poised to argue against two Canadian Human Rights Tribunal rulings

Most Read